Scenario analysis methodology · what the model does, what data it uses, and what it does not do.
HoldAtlas is a scenario analysis tool. It models three investment paths · ETF/passive accumulation, direct residential property, and a hybrid of both · and projects outcomes under conservative, base, and optimistic market conditions.
HoldAtlas does not provide financial advice. All outputs are illustrative scenario projections based on historical market data and simplified mathematical models. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Users must consult a regulated financial adviser before making investment decisions.
HoldAtlas is designed in line with the principles of MiFID II Article 44 and Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565.
Primary reliance on institutional and governmental sources. Property market parameters are derived from aggregated publicly available listing data across multiple platforms. All values are normalised, transformed, and do not represent any single source dataset. Data vintage: Q2 2026.
Property price inputs are aggregated from publicly available listing statistics across multiple residential property platforms. HoldAtlas applies its own classification methodology (Budget / Standard / Prime district tiers), percentile-based normalisation, and a 50m² standard unit assumption. The resulting tier prices represent HoldAtlas model parameters derived from percentile aggregation across districts. Individual district-level data shown in the analysis reflects aggregated market statistics from publicly available sources.
| Source category | Data type | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| ECB MFI Interest Rate Statistics | Mortgage rates | Q1 2026 |
| Eurostat House Price Index | Property appreciation | Q4 2025 |
| Eurostat HICP | Inflation | Q1 2026 |
| National central banks (NBP, BdE, Bundesbank, BNB, BdP) | Country mortgage rates | Q1 2026 |
| National tax authorities (AEAT, AT, MF Poland, NRA Bulgaria) | Tax rates, CGT, transaction costs | Q1–Q2 2026 |
| Multiple residential listing platforms | District-level price aggregates (normalised) | Q1–Q2 2026 |
| Investropa, Global Property Guide | Rental yield benchmarks | Q4 2025–Q1 2026 |
| MSCI World / MSCI Europe index | ETF return assumptions | 20yr geometric avg |
Each path is modelled under three scenarios simultaneously. Scenario ranges are derived from historically observed extremes in Eurostat HPI and MSCI return data · not arbitrary multiples, and do not represent extreme tail-risk events.
Every path receives a fragility score from 0 to 100. Fragility measures how sensitive an outcome is to adverse conditions occurring simultaneously.
For property, fragility reflects factors such as rate sensitivity, monthly cashflow sign, vacancy exposure, and transaction cost recovery horizon. For ETF, it reflects sequence-of-returns risk and behavioural exit risk. Scores are calculated independently for each path.
The model is scoped to standard, investable secondary-market residential property. Results do not apply to the following property categories:
Market parameters are reviewed and updated on a quarterly basis.
HoldAtlas is a scenario analysis tool. It is not a regulated financial adviser, investment firm, or portfolio manager. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice.
All scenario projections are based on historical data and simplified models. Market conditions, tax law, interest rates, and financing conditions may change materially. Individual outcomes will differ from modelled projections.
Outputs are model-based estimates, not actual market prices, offers, or guarantees of performance. Property data is aggregated and normalised from public sources and may differ from real transaction values.
Consult a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, and legal counsel before making any investment decision.