Scenario analysis tool

See what happens to your money
before you commit it

HoldAtlas runs conservative, base and optimistic scenarios for ETF and property investment across five European markets. An interactive decision tree shows net exit value at year 3, 7 and 10 · so you can compare paths with real numbers before you commit.

Three paths. One capital amount. Real market data.

Enter your capital, monthly contribution, target country and investment horizon. HoldAtlas calculates three paths in parallel · ETF-only, leveraged property, and a hybrid approach · then presents results as an interactive decision tree. Each path shows net exit value at year 3, 7 and 10, monthly cashflow, and the conditions under which the result reverses.

A

Index fund (ETF)

Full capital invested today. Conservative, base and optimistic return ranges using MSCI World and MSCI Europe data from 1970–2024.

B

Property-first

Leveraged purchase with country-specific mortgage rates, transaction costs, rental income and vacancy modelling. Remainder stays in ETF.

C

Hybrid path

Build the deposit in ETF while saving, then switch to leveraged property. Both assets grow in parallel after purchase.

Five markets, four city types each

Each country is modelled with four city tiers · major city, secondary city, coastal and inland · using transaction prices from official sources and local market data.

Poland
Warsaw · Lodz · Gdansk · Lublin
NBP data · Q4 2025
Spain
Madrid · Valencia · Costa del Sol · Murcia
BdE data · Q1 2026
Portugal
Lisbon · Porto · Algarve · Interior
BPortugal · Q1 2026
Bulgaria
Sofia · Plovdiv/Varna · Black Sea · Inland
BNB · Q1 2026 · eurozone member Jan 2026
Germany
Berlin · Leipzig · Baltic coast · East Germany
Bundesbank · Q1 2026

Built for cross-border investors

HoldAtlas is designed for people who are deciding whether to invest capital in a European property market they do not live in yet, or keep it in an index fund · and want to see both options modelled with actual numbers before they spend months researching the wrong path.

It is most useful for expats, digital nomads and people relocating within Europe who have €30k–€300k to deploy and a 5-10 year horizon.

Scenario analysis, not advice

HoldAtlas is a scenario analysis tool. Its outputs are illustrative projections consistent with the principles that distinguish scenario analysis from regulated investment advice under EU financial services law. All outputs are illustrative projections based on historical data and simplified mathematical models.

Regulatory positioning · what this means in practice

HoldAtlas is not a regulated financial adviser and does not provide investment advice, portfolio management or execution services. It presents comparative scenario outputs · net exit values, cashflow and break points across three paths · so users can evaluate their own situation. It does not recommend a path, tell users what to do, or substitute for advice from a regulated financial adviser. Users must consult a regulated financial adviser before making investment decisions. Tax figures shown are indicative averages · individual treatment depends on personal circumstances, residency and applicable treaties.

Primary sources only

All market parameters are derived from the following primary sources. No secondary aggregators or opinion-based forecasts are used as primary inputs. Data vintage: Q1 2026.

MSCI World / EuropeETF return series 1970-2024
ECB MFI StatisticsMortgage rates, Q1 2026
Eurostat HPIHouse price index, Q3 2025
Eurostat HICPInflation, Feb 2026
NBP (Poland)Rates + transactional prices Q1 2026
Banco de EspanaMFI housing credit Q1 2026
BundesbankMFI lending rates Q1 2026
BNB (Bulgaria)Mortgage rates Q1 2026
Banco de PortugalMFI lending rates Q1 2026
Global Property GuideRental yields, 2025
OECD Housing IndicatorsVacancy rates 2024
SonarHome / IdealistaCity-level prices 2025-2026

What HoldAtlas does not do

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Provide financial advice, recommendations or guidance on what to invest in
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Model distressed properties, auction purchases, or properties with title disputes
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Cover off-plan or new-build projects, commercial conversions or renovation strategies
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Provide tax advice · figures are indicative averages, not tailored tax calculations
x
Predict future market conditions · all outputs are scenario projections based on historical data
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Cover markets outside Poland, Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria and Germany
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Replace due diligence · legal checks, notary verification and mortgage approval are outside scope
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Accept liability for investment decisions · HoldAtlas accepts no liability for decisions made based on its outputs

Free to try, one-time to unlock

Free1 scenario · no PDF · email required
€9Starter · 3 scenarios · no PDF · no expiry
€29Pro · unlimited · PDF export · 30 days
Run your scenario →

Enter your scenario on the tool and explore a live demo of the analysis · Spain · €120k · 10yr · before deciding.

Legal information

HoldAtlas is operated by Hanna Vasiukova.

Registered in Poland
NIP: 7252364283
Address: ul. Stefana Jaracza 21 m. 46, 90-261 Łódź, Poland
Contact: contact@holdatlas.com